Research on the risk forecast model in the coal mine system based on GSPA-Markov

Safety accidents in the coal mine occurred frequently, that how to reduce them became an important national task, which the hazards identification and the risk forecast work in the coal mine system can solve. In the process of risk forecast in the coal mine system, considering characteristics that s...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Procedia engineering 2011, Vol.26, p.506-515
Main Authors: De-shun, LI, Kai-li, XU
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
GSPA
Markov
risk forecast
transform matrix
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Safety accidents in the coal mine occurred frequently, that how to reduce them became an important national task, which the hazards identification and the risk forecast work in the coal mine system can solve. In the process of risk forecast in the coal mine system, considering characteristics that system risk is different in different period, the IDO (identification, difference, opposition) change rule of the set pair which has element weight is analyzed, and on the basis of which, the system risk forecast model based on GSPA-MARKOV is put forward. The application example shows that the risk state in the coal mine system is forecasted by the transition probability and the ergodicity in the model, which embodies fully dynamic, predictable and so on , thus it provides a new method to determine the risk state in the coal mine system.
ISSN:1877-7058
1877-7058
DOI:10.1016/j.proeng.2011.11.2199