Impact of climate changes on potential sugarcane yield in Pernambuco, northeastern region of Brazil

• Published in: Renewable energy 2015-06, Vol.78, p.26-34
• Main Authors: Carvalho, André Luiz de, Menezes, Rômulo Simões Cezar, Nóbrega, Ranyére Silva, Pinto, Alexandre de Siqueira, Ometto, Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud, von Randow, Celso, Giarolla, Angélica
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Century 4.5 model; Future climate scenarios; Global warming; Sugarcane
• ISSN: 0960-1481; 1879-0682
• DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.12.023

Sugarcane is a typical culture of hot and humid climate and therefore is well adapted to the climate in many regions of Brazil. However, there may be yield reductions in the Northeastern region of Brazil due to possible future reductions in rainfall levels. The aim of this study was to simulate, using the Century 4.5 model, the impact of climate changes on potential sugarcane yield in Goiana and Itambé, Zona da Mata of Pernambuco. The Century 4.5 model was booted with soil and climate data from 1950 to 2012. Data on total soil carbon, soil texture (sand, silt and clay contents), pH, soil density and soc stocks were obtained from previous studies. The climate scenario used was the average emissions SRES A1B, designed by Eta/CPTEC model for periods 2014–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, which is composed of LOW member (low emissions) and HIGH member (high emissions). According to the results obtained by A1B scenario, the potential yield can be reduced in the near future (2014–2040). The high temperatures in northeastern Brazil will increase the evapotranspiration rates, reducing the amount of water available in the soil, making the planting of sugarcane increasingly difficult, which tend to be strongly reduced in drier areas, such as cities located in the western portion of the Zona da Mata region, northern state of Pernambuco, Brazil. •Eta/CPTEC model has generated future climate scenarios.•Forecasts showed an increased temperature and reduced rainfall in NE Brazil.•Century model was successfully used to simulate potential sugarcane yield.•Climate changes could reduce the potential sugarcane yield in NE Brazil.•Century model can identify mitigation and adaptation actions to climate changes.