Estimating the impact of climate change on wind and solar energy in Brazil using a South American regional climate model

• Published in: Renewable energy 2019-10, Vol.141, p.390-401
• Main Authors: de Jong, Pieter, Barreto, Tarssio B., Tanajura, Clemente A.S., Kouloukoui, Daniel, Oliveira-Esquerre, Karla P., Kiperstok, Asher, Torres, Ednildo Andrade
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Climate change; Renewable energy; Solar radiation; Wind power
• ISSN: 0960-1481; 1879-0682
• DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2019.03.086

In the coming decades, higher temperatures, significantly reduced rainfall and changing wind speeds are projected for various semiarid regions due to Global Warming. Hydroelectric production in Brazil's São Francisco basin has already declined as a result of regional climate change, however less is known about the impacts on other renewable resources. The objective of this study is to estimate the impact of climate change on Brazil's solar and wind energy resources. Data from three different downscaled global climate models is used to estimate the percentage changes in average solar radiation and wind speed by the 2030s and 2080s under high emissions scenarios in comparison to baseline data from the end of the 20th century. Results show that due to climate change, solar energy potential could increase slightly at solar power plant locations in the NE and Southeast regions. Wind energy potential is projected to increase substantially across most of Brazil and at some wind farm locations wind power generation could increase by more than 40%. Despite some inconsistencies between the long-term projections from the 3 different climate models, the results of this research are important in the context of regional climate change and renewable energy resource planning. •Semiarid regions are vulnerable to more frequent and intense droughts due to climate change.•Average solar resources are projected to increase 3.6% in Brazil's Northeast by the 2080s compared to the 1970s.•Wind power from installed wind farms could increase 12% over the same period.•The wind power potential at some locations in Brazil's Northeast could increase by more than 40%.•There are substantial differences between regional climate model projections, particularly for 2070–2099.