A multi-task spatio-temporal fusion network for offshore wind power ramp events forecasting

• Published in: Renewable energy 2024-12, Vol.237, p.121774, Article 121774
• Main Authors: Song, Weiye, Yan, Jie, Han, Shuang, Liu, Shihua, Wang, Han, Dai, Qiangsheng, Huo, Xuesong, Liu, Yongqian
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Offshore wind power; Spatiotemporal convolutional neural network; Wind power ramp events
• ISSN: 0960-1481
• DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.121774

With the accelerated development of offshore wind farms, the impact of Wind Power Ramp Events (WPRE) on power systems has become more pronounced. Accurate prediction of WPRE is essential for mitigating their adverse effects on the grid. However, current studies on offshore WPRE are limited, especially regarding their spatio-temporal correlations and variability across large wind farm clusters. To address this, a novel forecasting approach using a multi-task spatio-temporal fusion network is presented. This method improves WPRE prediction by integrating spatial and temporal data and utilizing multitask learning to characterize ramp features. Firstly, an index system for WPRE characterization is developed, including metrics such as power change rate and duration. Based on this, an X-means classification method for WPRE is established. Secondly, a spatio-temporal encoder combining graph convolutional networks and temporal attention mechanisms has been proposed to model the spatiotemporal dependencies of meteorological changes in offshore wind farms. Finally, a multitask learning framework has been introduced to predict WPRE characteristic indices and occurrence probabilities. This approach enhances feature extraction efficiency through the joint feedback of multiple related tasks, thereby improving prediction accuracy. A case study using data from five offshore wind farms in Eastern China validates the efficacy of the proposed method.