Unveiling the nonlinear drivers of urban land resources on carbon emissions: The mediating role of industrial upgrading and technological innovation

• Published in: Resources, conservation and recycling conservation and recycling, 2025-01, Vol.212, p.108000, Article 108000
• Main Authors: Qiao, Renlu, Zhao, Zexu, Wu, Tao, Zhou, Shiqi, AO, Xiang, Yang, Ting, Liu, Xiaochang, Liu, Zhiyu, Wu, Zhiqiang
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Industrial updating; Land price; Land resources; Technological innovation; Urban carbon emissions
• ISSN: 0921-3449
• DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.108000

•Examines the link between urban land resource use and carbon emissions.•Finds industrial and residential zones as key emission drivers.•Highlights land price's inverse relationship with emissions.•Supports strategies for reducing urban carbon through land resource planning.•Proposes a mediating role for urban technological innovation and industrial upgrading. As cities continue to develop, land resources play a pivotal role in the pursuit of sustainable urban development. However, the impact and mechanisms of land resources on reducing emissions remain unclear. Therefore, our study employs an ensemble learning model within a Monte Carlo Simulation framework to explore the nonlinear relationship between land resources and carbon emissions. Additionally, we utilize a fixed effects model to identify the mechanisms of impact. Specifically, industrial and residential land uses are identified as primary drivers of carbon emissions, contributing 17.04 % and 4.75 % of the total variance in emissions, respectively. In contrast, a standard deviation increase in land price leads to a reduction of 4.65 tons in per capita carbon emissions. In addition, industrial upgrading and innovation emerge as critical mediators in promoting carbon reduction. This research contributes to sustainable urban planning and policy-making, offering insights into how strategic land use planning reduces urban carbon footprints. [Display omitted]