A dual risk perspective of China's resources market: Geopolitical risk and political risk

Currently, literature is exploring the factors affecting the economic growth of countries and regions. However, there is still a gap in empirical research regarding the connection between risk factors, natural resources, and economic growth, particularly in emerging economies. This study examines th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Resources policy 2023-05, Vol.82, p.103528, Article 103528
Main Authors: Wang, Guoyu, Gu, Xiao, Shen, Xi, Uktamov, Khusniddin Fakhriddinovich, Ageli, Mohammed Moosa
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
China
Economic growth
Exports
Geopolitical risk
Mineral rents
Oil rents
Political risk
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Summary:Currently, literature is exploring the factors affecting the economic growth of countries and regions. However, there is still a gap in empirical research regarding the connection between risk factors, natural resources, and economic growth, particularly in emerging economies. This study examines the influence of geopolitical risk, political risk, natural resources, and exports on China's economic development during 1983–2021. The Bayer-Hanck combined cointegration results verified the cointegration association between the variables. Using a novel method of movement quantile regression, this study found that geopolitical risk, mineral rents, and exports are positive, while political risk and oil rents adversely affect China's economic growth. These results are robust and consistent as validated by parametric (dynamic ordinary least square, canonical cointegration regression, and fully modified ordinary least square) and non-parametric (bootstrap quantile regression and simple quantile regression) estimators. Based on the empirical results, this study suggested lowering the risk factors and efficiently exploiting and utilizing natural resources for sustainable development. •Investigated China's economic growth from dual risk perspective during 1983–2021.•The role of natural resources and exports is analyzed via novel estimation methods.•Exports, geopolitical risk, and mineral rents enhances economic growth.•Political risk and oil rents are adversely related to economic growth.•Suggested reduced risks, improved exports, and efficient use of natural resources.
ISSN:0301-4207
DOI:10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103528