From GitHub to GDP: A framework for measuring open source software innovation

• Published in: Research policy 2024-04, Vol.53 (3), p.104954, Article 104954
• Main Authors: Korkmaz, Gizem, Santiago Calderón, J. Bayoán, Kramer, Brandon L., Guci, Ledia, Robbins, Carol A.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Cost measurement; GitHub; Gross domestic product; Innovation; National accounts; Open source software; Software investment
• ISSN: 0048-7333; 1873-7625
• DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2024.104954

Open source software (OSS) is software that anyone can review, modify, and distribute freely, usually with only minor restrictions such as giving credit to the creator of the work. The use of OSS is growing rapidly, due to its value in increasing firm and economy-wide productivity. Despite its widespread use, there is no standardized methodology for measuring the scope and impact of this fundamental intangible asset. This study presents a framework to measure the value of OSS using data collected from GitHub, the largest platform in the world with over 100 million developers. The data include over 7.6 million repositories where software is developed, stored, and managed. We collect information about contributors and development activity such as code changes and license detail. By adopting a cost estimation model from software engineering, we develop a methodology to generate estimates of investment in OSS that are consistent with the U.S. national accounting methods used for measuring software investment. We generate annual estimates of current and inflation-adjusted investment as well as the net stock of OSS for the 2009–2019 period. Our estimates show that the U.S. investment in 2019 was $37.8 billion with a current-cost net stock of $74.3 billion. [Display omitted] •This paper addresses a measurement gap in the value in open source software (OSS)•We present a novel framework to estimate investment in OSS using GitHub data•We curate a dataset of 7.6 million GitHub repositories and 3.2 million contributors•Annual estimates of OSS investment and the net stock are generated for 2009-2019•U.S. investment in OSS in 2019 is estimated at $37.8 billion with a net stock of $74.3 billion