A mission success probability assessment framework for phased-mission-systems using extended graphical evaluation and review technique

• Published in: Reliability engineering & system safety 2024-09, Vol.249, p.110248, Article 110248
• Main Authors: Zhang, Jingru, Fang, Zhigeng, Dong, Wenjie, Liu, Sifeng, Chen, Ding
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Activity re-execution; Cascading effect; Extended graphical evaluation and review technique; Mission success probability assessment; Phased-mission-system
• ISSN: 0951-8320
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110248

Mission success probability (MSP) characterizes the capability of successfully completing the desired mission under external disruptions and internal failures, which is of great significance in assessing the availability of phased-mission-system (PMS). Therefore, in order to precisely resolve the MSP and analyze the PMS, a novel mission-driven four-level modular framework is established. Firstly, by dissecting and outlining missions from top to bottom, mission analysis implements multi-granularity analysis from abstract to concrete. The overall objective, sub-tasks, phased tasks, supported component and its configuration are all identified. Secondly, the general MSP assessment procedure is elaborated from the perspectives of operation level, phase level and mission level. Under the provided extended graphical evaluation and review technique (EGERT), the metrics of PMS are deduced from a single activity’s metrics while considering the cascading effect and time factor. Finally, the presented model is employed to illustrate how the MSP evaluation is carried out in a regional air defensive system of systems. •Four-level modular framework for mission success probability assessment of phased-mission-systems is proposed.•Component operational performance considering success probability, quality cost and risk loss is quantified.•The extended graphical evaluation and review technique is applied to analyze re-execution activity.•The operational performance of key component and critical activity is focused on.