The relationship between freight transport and economic development: A case study of China

• Published in: Research in transportation economics 2021-03, Vol.85, p.100885, Article 100885
• Main Authors: Wang, Hui, Han, Jiaying, Su, Min, Wan, Shulin, Zhang, Zhenchao
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Decoupling index; per capita GDP; Transport intensity; Turnover of freight traffic per person
• ISSN: 0739-8859; 1875-7979
• DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2020.100885

As a derivative demand of economic development, freight transport plays an important role in economic growth. In recent years, the experience of some countries shows that freight demand remains stable or even declines with GDP growth. This study uses the panel data of 30 provinces (cities and autonomous regions) in China from 1997 to 2017 to analyze the evolution of the relationship between freight demand and economic development, using the decoupling index and transport intensity measurement models. We find that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the turnover of freight traffic per person and economic development, and the development processes of Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin fully conform to this feature. China's economic development as a whole is decoupled from freight development, while its transport intensity is weakening; however, there are obvious regional variations. This indicates that the contribution of high freight-demand sectors to economic development has declined, which is undoubtedly the result of multiple factors such as the industrial structure and geographical characteristics of each region. This study provides an opinion in support of region-dependent infrastructure improvements, for managers to realize the “win-win” development of transportation and the economy. •An empirical analysis of the evolution of the relationship between freight demand and economic development in China.•Negative decoupling between economic development and freight demand has appeared in China.•The demand for freight transport shows an inverted U-shaped trend with economic development.•Economic development and freight demand show obvious regional characteristics.