Shifting agricultural land use and its unintended water consumption in the North China Plain

• Published in: Science bulletin (Beijing) 2024-12
• Main Authors: Dong, Liang, Long, Di, Zhang, Caijin, Cui, Yingjie, Cui, Yanhong, Wang, Yiming, Li, Luoqi, Hong, Zhongkun, Yao, Ling, Quan, Jinling, Bai, Liangliang, Wang, Hao, Scanlon, Bridget R.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agricultural land use; Random forest classification; Remote sensing imagery; Shifts in crop patterns; Water consumption
• ISSN: 2095-9273
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2024.11.009

[Display omitted] Agricultural land use (ALU) critically influences food production and water resource allocation. This study examines the dynamics of ALU in the North China Plain (NCP), a region characterized by intensive agriculture and severe groundwater over-exploitation, focusing on the multidimensional drivers and their implications for water resource management. By employing an elaborate classification scheme based on satellite imagery and extensive first-hand field data, we identified significant shifts in crop patterns. From 2013 to 2017, there was a notable transition from double crops (primarily wheat-maize) to single crops (primarily maize), covering 4600 km2 and accounting for 42% of single crops in 2013. From 2017 to 2022, there was a shift from single crops to economic forests, encompassing 3600 km2 and 22% of economic forests in 2017, including orchards, timber trees, and shelter forest belts. These shifts resulted in an 11% decrease in grain acreage (6800 km2) but an 11% increase in crop water consumption (6.3 km3) during 2013–2022. Notably, water consumption by economic forests increased by 126% (9.4 km3) during this period. This study highlights the critical need to balance competing demands for food and water security, providing valuable insights applicable to other agriculturally intensive regions worldwide.