Forecasting air quality considering the socio-economic development in Xingtai

• Published in: Sustainable cities and society 2020-10, Vol.61, p.102337, Article 102337
• Main Authors: Shi, Kaihe, Wu, Lifeng
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air quality composite index; Construction industry; Resident population; Secondary industry; Tertiary industry; Vehicle population
• ISSN: 2210-6707; 2210-6715
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2020.102337

•Air quality is predicted based on the speed of socio-economic development.•The impact of the socio-economic development on air quality is discussed respectively.•Grey multivariable model has high forecasting performance. Air quality has deteriorated in many areas of China. To discuss the impact of the socio-economic factors on air quality and improve air quality in a small city, this article firstly uses the grey correlation analysis method to rank the impact of social-economic factors on Xingtai's air quality. Then, considering the different growth rates of the socio-economic factors, the grey multivariate convolution model is developed to predict the comprehensive air quality index in Xingtai. The results show that the industry has less adverse impact on air quality than the construction industry, and the tertiary industry has positive impact on air quality. The vehicle population and resident population all have adverse impact on air quality. According to the results, it is suggested to change the development direction from construction industry to the industry.