On using dynamic IO models with layers of techniques to measure value added in global value chains

•We propose a new approach to forecasting value-added-related indexes in GVCs.•We use a new variant of dynamic endogenous global input-output model.•An empirical case study is focused on 4 groups of economies and 7 groups of sectors. We propose a new approach to forecasting the future paths of value...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Structural change and economic dynamics 2018-12, Vol.47, p.155-170
Main Authors: Gurgul, Henryk, Lach, Łukasz
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Endogenous dynamics
Global value chains
World input-output data
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Summary:•We propose a new approach to forecasting value-added-related indexes in GVCs.•We use a new variant of dynamic endogenous global input-output model.•An empirical case study is focused on 4 groups of economies and 7 groups of sectors. We propose a new approach to forecasting the future paths of value-added-related indexes in the framework of global value chains (GVCs) in a global input-output model. The proposed methodology may be applied to different groups of counties and sectors in a global IO framework under various scenarios regarding technological progress. In an illustrative empirical case study, we focus on four groups of economies and seven groups of sectors. The preliminary results suggest that the East Asian economies, AUNAFTA, and the EU countries are expected to improve the efficiency in building their comparative advantage within the GVC framework, while the largest developing economies are not.
ISSN:0954-349X
1873-6017
DOI:10.1016/j.strueco.2018.07.004