Traffic generated by mixed-use developments—A follow-up 31-region study

• Published in: Transportation research. Part D, Transport and environment Transport and environment, 2020-01, Vol.78, p.102205, Article 102205
• Main Authors: Tian, Guang, Park, Keunhyun, Ewing, Reid, Watten, Mackenzie, Walters, Jerry
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Built environment; Internal capture; Mixed-use development; Mode choice; Multi-modal transportation; Trip generation
• ISSN: 1361-9209; 1879-2340
• DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2019.102205

•622 MXDs were identified in 31 metropolitan regions across the United States.•Well-designed MXDs have walk shares of more than 50 percent on internal trips.•MXDs with diverse activities and good transit service capture more internal trips.•Certain MXDs generate significant walk, bike, and transit shares on external trips.•A k-fold cross-validation supports the robustness of the analyses. This study aims to improve a previously-developed methodology for predicting the traffic impacts of mixed-use developments (MXDs). In 31 diverse metropolitan regions across the United States, we collected consistent regional household travel survey data and computed built environment characteristics—D variables—of MXDs. Multilevel modeling (MLM) was employed to predict the probability of trips captured internally within MXDs, walking on internal trips, and travel mode choice on external trips, by trip purpose. Larger, denser, mixed-use, and more walkable MXDs show a larger share of trips internally, compared with conventional suburban developments. Those MXDs with good access to transit, employment, and destinations also show higher levels of walking, biking, and transit shares on external trips, thus helping to reduce traffic impacts on the external road network. Perhaps the most impressive finding is that well-designed MXDs have walk shares of more than 50 percent on internal trips. A k-fold cross-validation supports the robustness of our analyses.