Demand for plug-in electric vehicles across segments in the future vehicle market

• Published in: Transportation research. Part D, Transport and environment Transport and environment, 2021-09, Vol.98, p.102976, Article 102976
• Main Authors: Jensen, Anders Fjendbo, Thorhauge, Mikkel, Mabit, Stefan Eriksen, Rich, Jeppe
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Car purchase; Charging; Discrete Choice Modelling; Electric Vehicles; Substitution effects
• ISSN: 1361-9209; 1879-2340
• DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2021.102976

•Preferences for PEVs are estimated for a representative national sample.•Vehicle choice is analysed taking both fuel type and car segment into account.•A mixed logit model with random effects reveals many substitution patterns.•Twenty WTP measures are found, e.g. running costs, emissions and charging aspects.•Elasticities for price and range are derived based on the model after calibration. The electrification of transport systems requires a change in the composition of the vehicle fleet towards higher shares of electric vehicles. A successful transition, however, depends on many factors of which some relate to purchase prices and vehicle features, while others relate to technology and charging infrastructure. This paper analyses the transition towards plug-in electric vehicles. We use data from a large representative Danish stated choice survey. Based on these data, we estimate a mixed logit model that allows for correlated random effects across fuel types and car segments as well as systematic heterogeneity. The results show that correlation and substitution indeed goes across these dimensions. Willingness-to-pay (WTP) measures are estimated for a variety of attributes. These suggest that the WTP for range varies with fuel types, that the possibility for home charging is highly valued, and that CO2 is a significant concern among individuals in the sample.