Projecting line-haul truck technology adoption: How heterogeneity among fleets impacts system-wide adoption

A System-of-Systems engineering methodology is used to project truck technology adoption behaviors of heterogeneous fleets operating over the U.S. line-haul freight transportation system. A constrained mixed-integer linear program is formulated to optimize total cost of ownership of regional fleets...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Transportation research. Part E, Logistics and transportation review Logistics and transportation review, 2019-04, Vol.124, p.108-127
Main Authors: Guerrero de la Peña, Ana, Davendralingam, Navindran, Raz, Ali K., DeLaurentis, Daniel, Shaver, Gregory, Sujan, Vivek, Jain, Neera
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Class 8 trucks
Emerging technologies
Freight transportation
System-of-systems
Technology adoption prediction
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Summary:A System-of-Systems engineering methodology is used to project truck technology adoption behaviors of heterogeneous fleets operating over the U.S. line-haul freight transportation system. A constrained mixed-integer linear program is formulated to optimize total cost of ownership of regional fleets given vehicle highway performance, fleet operations, cost of energy, and freight demand. A design-of-experiments demonstrates adoption sensitivity to economic parameters and individual fleet management constraints. Validation results demonstrate the importance of modeling fleet heterogeneity to achieving 90% prediction accuracy of historical adoption of three different vehicle architectures across 12 representative fleets over a 11-year period.
ISSN:1366-5545
1878-5794
DOI:10.1016/j.tre.2018.12.017