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Lisbon urban heat island in future urban and climate scenarios

Urban heat Islands (UHIs) may constitute a hazard for urban populations, particularly under extreme events such as heatwaves. Lisbon is a medium-size city regularly affected by heatwaves with maximum temperatures >35 °C and is expected to grow and densify during this century. This study evaluates...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Urban climate 2022-07, Vol.44, p.101218, Article 101218
Main Authors: Silva, Rui, Carvalho, Ana Cristina, Pereira, Susana Cardoso, Carvalho, David, Rocha, Alfredo
Format: Article
Language:English
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Summary:Urban heat Islands (UHIs) may constitute a hazard for urban populations, particularly under extreme events such as heatwaves. Lisbon is a medium-size city regularly affected by heatwaves with maximum temperatures >35 °C and is expected to grow and densify during this century. This study evaluates the UHI in the Municipality of Lisbon (ML) for the heatwave with the highest maximum average temperature identified in long-term (2081–2100) RCP8.5 scenario climate simulations, relative to present conditions, represented by a typical heatwave identified in historical (1986–2005) period climate simulations. The expected future consolidation of the city (up to 2100) is considered, as well as the anthropogenic heat and irrigation effects. Simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) coupled with the Single-layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM). The results reveal that urban irrigation effects compensate anthropogenic heat due to increased latent heat release. The expected city consolidation up to 2100 produces the largest increase in the UHI intensity (UHII) during nighttime due to the introduction of urban land use land cover (LULC) with reduced green fraction. No evidence of synergistic interactions between UHI and heatwave intensities were found, with the UHII mostly depending on wind direction and intensity. •The Municipality of Lisbon's UHI is studied under future urban and climate scenarios.•Anthropogenic heat and irrigation of urban green spaces are considered.•Irrigation of urban green spaces balances anthropogenic heat effects.•Urban consolidation by 2100 can increase nighttime UHI intensity by 37.8%.•UHI depends much more on local wind conditions than on heatwave intensity.
ISSN:2212-0955
2212-0955
DOI:10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101218