Simulation to aid in interpreting biological relevance and setting of population-level protection goals for risk assessment of pesticides

• Published in: Regulatory toxicology and pharmacology 2017-10, Vol.89, p.40-49
• Main Authors: Topping, Christopher John, Luttik, Robert
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agent-based simulation; Agriculture; Alauda arvensis; ALMaSS; Animals; Endpoint Determination; Environment; Environmental Exposure - prevention & control; Environmental risk assessment; Goals; Humans; Pesticides - toxicity; Risk Assessment; Skylarks; Specific protection goals
• ISSN: 0273-2300; 1096-0295
• DOI: 10.1016/j.yrtph.2017.07.011

Specific protection goals (SPGs) comprise an explicit expression of the environmental components that need protection and the maximum impacts that can be tolerated. SPGs are set by risk managers and are typically based on protecting populations or functions. However, the measurable endpoints available to risk managers, at least for vertebrates, are typically laboratory tests. We demonstrate, using the example of eggshell thinning in skylarks, how simulation can be used to place laboratory endpoints in context of population-level effects as an aid to setting the SPGs. We develop explanatory scenarios investigating the impact of different assumptions of eggshell thinning on skylark population size, density and distribution in 10 Danish landscapes, chosen to represent the range of typical Danish agricultural conditions. Landscape and timing of application of the pesticide were found to be the most critical factors to consider in the impact assessment. Consequently, a regulatory scenario of monoculture spring barley with an early spray treatment eliciting the eggshell thinning effect was applied using concentrations eliciting effects of zero to 100% in steps of 5%. Setting the SPGs requires balancing scientific, social and political realities. However, the provision of clear and detailed options such as those from comprehensive simulation results can inform the decision process by improving transparency and by putting the more abstract testing data into the context of real-world impacts. •A simulation-based method for improving dialogue on setting specific protection goals in regulatory ERA is presented.•Impacts depend on landscape structure as well as toxicological assumptions.•Simulation translates laboratory tests to population level impacts.•A higher-hierarchical level forms a more useful integrative endpoint on which to base decision-making.•Clear and detailed options from simulation can inform the decision process.