A Bayesian Approach to the Estimation of Radiocarbon Calibration Curves: The IntCal09 Methodology

This article presents a new approach to the construction of radiocarbon calibration curves. The Bayesian methodology was developed specifically to facilitate construction of the 2009 updates to the internationally agreed 14C calibration curves known as IntCal09 and Marine09. The curve estimation app...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Radiocarbon 2009, Vol.51 (4), p.1151-1164
Main Authors: Heaton, T J, Blackwell, P G, Buck, C E
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Dating
Excavation and methods
Laboratory methods
Methodology and general studies
Prehistory and protohistory
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Summary:This article presents a new approach to the construction of radiocarbon calibration curves. The Bayesian methodology was developed specifically to facilitate construction of the 2009 updates to the internationally agreed 14C calibration curves known as IntCal09 and Marine09. The curve estimation approach taken uses Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, specifically a Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampler, which offers improved flexibility and reliability over the approaches used in the past. In particular, the method allows accurate modeling of calibration data with 14C determinations that arise from material deposited over several consecutive calendar years and that exhibit complex uncertainty structures on their calendar date estimates (arising from methods such as wiggle-matching and varve counting).
ISSN:0033-8222
1945-5755
DOI:10.1017/S0033822200034214