Water Resources Optimization Method in the Context of Climate Change

AbstractThis paper describes a method for water resources optimization in the context of climate change. The method takes into account the midterm variability or seasonality of inflows as well as the uncertainty in the climate change and resulting flows. The objective of the optimization algorithm i...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of water resources planning and management 2015-02, Vol.141 (2)
Main Authors: Haguma, Didier, Leconte, Robert, Krau, Stéphane, Côté, Pascal, Brissette, François
Format: Article
Language:English
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Technical Papers
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Summary:AbstractThis paper describes a method for water resources optimization in the context of climate change. The method takes into account the midterm variability or seasonality of inflows as well as the uncertainty in the climate change and resulting flows. The objective of the optimization algorithm is to find a compromise between the long-term planning of water resources systems and the midterm operations for optimum hydropower production. The proposed algorithm consists of the midterm dynamic programming formulation coupled with the use of the expected value of the cost-to-go function between two consecutive long-term periods. Future climate projections and transition probabilities between projections represent the stochastic nature of inflows and the nonstationarity of climate. The performance of the method was evaluated through the simulation of inflow projections for the Manicouagan River basin in Quebec, Canada. The results showed that the algorithm was able to adapt the operating policy to the climate seasonality and climate change uncertainties in the optimization problem.
ISSN:0733-9496
1943-5452
DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000445