Measuring the impact of Ebola control measures in Sierra Leone

Between September 2014 and February 2015, the number of Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases reported in Sierra Leone declined in many districts. During this period, a major international response was put in place, with thousands of treatment beds introduced alongside other infection control measures. Ho...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2015-11, Vol.112 (46), p.14366-14371
Main Authors: Kucharski, Adam J., Camacho, Anton, Flasche, Stefan, Glover, Rebecca E., Edmunds, W. John, Funk, Sebastian
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Biological Sciences
Disease control
Ebola virus
Ebolavirus
Epidemics
Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola - epidemiology
Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola - transmission
Humans
Impact analysis
Male
Measurement
Models, Biological
Sierra Leone
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Summary:Between September 2014 and February 2015, the number of Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases reported in Sierra Leone declined in many districts. During this period, a major international response was put in place, with thousands of treatment beds introduced alongside other infection control measures. However, assessing the impact of the response is challenging, as several factors could have influenced the decline in infections, including behavior changes and other community interventions. We developed a mathematical model of EVD transmission, and measured how transmission changed over time in the 12 districts of Sierra Leone with sustained transmission between June 2014 and February 2015. We used the model to estimate how many cases were averted as a result of the introduction of additional treatment beds in each area. Examining epidemic dynamics at the district level, we estimated that 56,600 (95% credible interval: 48,300–84,500) Ebola cases (both reported and unreported) were averted in Sierra Leone up to February 2, 2015 as a direct result of additional treatment beds being introduced. We also found that if beds had been introduced 1 month earlier, a further 12,500 cases could have been averted. Our results suggest the unprecedented local and international response led to a substantial decline in EVD transmission during 2014–2015. In particular, the introduction of beds had a direct impact on reducing EVD cases in Sierra Leone, although the effect varied considerably between districts.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.1508814112