CROATIAN RURAL FUTURES IN 2030: FOUR ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS FOR POSTSOCIALIST COUNTRYSIDE IN THE NEWEST E.U. MEMBER STATE

The academic picture of a globalized European countryside, and particularly of rural areas in postsocialist, new member states of the European Union, is one of huge and increasing complexity, diversity, and uncertainties about the future. The aim of this research is to construct alternative scenario...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geographical review 2022-05, Vol.112 (3), p.332-352
Main Authors: Lukić, Aleksandar, Radeljak Kaufmann, Petra, Valožić, Luka, Zupanc, Ivan, Cvitanović, Marin, Pejnović, Dane, Žilić, Ivan
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Cluster analysis
Countryside
Delphi method
diversity
Future
Monte Carlo simulation
neoendogenous development
Postcommunist societies
Qualitative analysis
rural
Rural areas
Rural communities
Rural development
Rural roads
scenario method
Simulation
typology
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Summary:The academic picture of a globalized European countryside, and particularly of rural areas in postsocialist, new member states of the European Union, is one of huge and increasing complexity, diversity, and uncertainties about the future. The aim of this research is to construct alternative scenarios for rural Croatia in 2030, acknowledging its postsocialist transition as an important framework. Future development scenarios were constructed by integrating quantitative and qualitative approaches. The main methods used were: factor and cluster analysis; Monte Carlo simulation; and Delphi method, involving 37 rural experts in two rounds of written questionnaires. Four scenarios were developed: Rural Renaissance, Shift, Road to Nowhere, and Growth without Development. These scenarios provide a set of well-documented and reasonable assumptions to aid in thinking about possible future paths for the Croatian countryside, while at the same time allowing for the discussion of rural development paradigms.
ISSN:0016-7428
1931-0846
DOI:10.1080/00167428.2020.1871298