A real option-based supply chain project evaluation and scheduling method

Supply chain departments spend their time managing numerous projects that will improve and maintain their supply chains. Recent literature has most frequently described the content of these projects and their scheduling but neglected to include risk and uncertainty in the expected cost, profits and...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of production research 2014-06, Vol.52 (12), p.3725-3743
Main Authors: Wagner, Stephan M., Padhi, Sidhartha S., Zanger, Ingmar
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
binary fuzzy goal programming
Flexibility
Fuzzy
Fuzzy logic
Goal programming
Project evaluation
Project management
project scheduling
real option
Real options analysis
Risk
Risk assessment
Scheduling
Sensitivity analysis
Studies
Supply chain management
Supply chains
Uncertainty
Valuation methods
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Summary:Supply chain departments spend their time managing numerous projects that will improve and maintain their supply chains. Recent literature has most frequently described the content of these projects and their scheduling but neglected to include risk and uncertainty in the expected cost, profits and time durations of these projects. In this article, we have introduced real option valuation (ROV) to supply chain project scheduling as a flexible method to quantify those risks. Our proposed two-step framework links ROV to all relevant constraints of a multi-project set-up by binary fuzzy goal programming. We applied the framework to a real-life case study data of 21 projects that were facing numerous risks and resource constraints. The results show how scheduling performance improved in comparison to methods ignoring risk and uncertainty (e.g. net present value-based scheduling). For validation we conducted hypothesis tests and sensitivity analysis, and provide an in-depth discussion. The findings contribute to research and practice by capturing project-related risks and managerial flexibilities in general and in supply chains in particular.
ISSN:0020-7543
1366-588X
DOI:10.1080/00207543.2014.883473