Miracles and Statistics: The Casual Assumption of Independence

The primary theme of this address is cautionary: Statistical independence is far too often assumed casually, without serious concern for how common is dependence and how difficult it can be to achieve independence (or related structures). After initial discussion of statistics and religion, the addr...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of the American Statistical Association 1988-12, Vol.83 (404), p.929-940
Main Author: Kruskal, William
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applications and Case Studies
Babbage
Christianity
Divinity
Hume
Miracles
Natural law
Prayer
Probabilities
Radiation accidents
Religion
Safety
Statistics
Testimony
Theology
Treatises
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Summary:The primary theme of this address is cautionary: Statistical independence is far too often assumed casually, without serious concern for how common is dependence and how difficult it can be to achieve independence (or related structures). After initial discussion of statistics and religion, the address turns to miracles, especially Hume's critique and Babbage's reply. Stress is given the often tacit or unexamined assumption of independence among witnesses of a putative miracle. Other contexts of multiple testimony are treated, and the address ends with contemporary casual assumptions of independence: nuclear reactor safety, repeated measurements, and so forth. Other topics include prayer, circularity of argument, and the tension between skepticism about testimony and the pragmatic need to accept most of it provisionally.
ISSN:0162-1459
1537-274X
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1988.10478682