Budyko-based approach for modelling water balance dynamics considering environmental change drivers in the Vistula River basin, Poland

The spatiotemporal variations in the water balance caused by environmental changes lead to unsteady-state conditions with long- and short-term implications for social and economic conditions. The aim of this study is to extend the current knowledge of the Budyko approach in unsteady-state conditions...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Hydrological sciences journal 2023-04, Vol.68 (5), p.655-669
Main Authors: Senbeta, Tesfaye Belay, Karamuz, Emila, Kochanek, Krzysztof, Napiórkowski, Jarosław Jan, Romanowicz, Renata Julita
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Budyko-based model
Calibration
Catchment area
Climate change
Climate models
Dynamics
Economic conditions
Effective precipitation
Environmental changes
Hydrologic processes
Hydrology
model structural uncertainty
Modelling
Performance prediction
Precipitation
River basins
Rivers
the River Vistula basin
Uncertainty
Water balance
water balance dynamics
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Summary:The spatiotemporal variations in the water balance caused by environmental changes lead to unsteady-state conditions with long- and short-term implications for social and economic conditions. The aim of this study is to extend the current knowledge of the Budyko approach in unsteady-state conditions and the importance of model structural uncertainties. We used three Budyko-based models (Turc-Pike, Zhang, Fu) with and without the concept of effective precipitation scenarios. The effective precipitation and model parameters were determined together during the calibration processes. The effective precipitation-based approach improved the model performance in predicting the annual water balance in most of the River Vistula catchment. We also discuss the importance of considering structural uncertainties in water balance modelling. Climate change is the main driver for the changes in the water balance of the River Vistula. The estimation of water balance dynamics, considering environmental changes, is essential to understand the changes in hydrological processes.
ISSN:0262-6667
2150-3435
DOI:10.1080/02626667.2023.2187297