Testing for Uncorrelated Residuals in Dynamic Count Models With an Application to Corporate Bankruptcy

This article proposes new model checks for dynamic count models. Both portmanteau and omnibus-type tests for lack of residual autocorrelation are considered. The resulting test statistics are asymptotically pivotal when innovations are uncorrelated but possibly exhibit higher order serial dependence...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of business & economic statistics 2017-07, Vol.35 (3), p.349-358
Main Author: Sant'Anna, Pedro H. C.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Credit risk management
Model checking
Residual autocorrelation function
Time series of counts
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Summary:This article proposes new model checks for dynamic count models. Both portmanteau and omnibus-type tests for lack of residual autocorrelation are considered. The resulting test statistics are asymptotically pivotal when innovations are uncorrelated but possibly exhibit higher order serial dependence. Moreover, the tests are able to detect local alternatives converging to the null at the parametric rate T − 1/2 , with T the sample size. The finite sample performance of the test statistics are examined by means of Monte Carlo experiments. Using a dataset on U.S. corporate bankruptcies, the proposed tests are applied to check if different risk models are correctly specified. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
ISSN:0735-0015
1537-2707
DOI:10.1080/07350015.2015.1102732