The paradox of the binomial Ixodes ricinus activity and the observed unimodal Lyme borreliosis season in Hungary

The change of ambient temperature plays a key role in determining the run of the annual Lyme season. Our aim was to explain the apparent contradiction between the annual unimodal Lyme borreliosis incidence and the bimodal Ixodes ricinus tick activity run - both observed in Hungary - by distinguishin...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of environmental health research 2014-05, Vol.24 (3), p.226-245
Main Authors: Trájer, A., Bede-Fazekas, Á., Hufnagel, L., Bobvos, J., Páldy, A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animals
Arachnids
Bacterial diseases
bimodality
Biological and medical sciences
Borrelia
Borrelia burgdorferi
Borrelia infections
Camping
Camping - statistics & numerical data
Correlation analysis
Human bacterial diseases
Humans
Hungary - epidemiology
Incidence
Infectious diseases
Ixodes - growth & development
Ixodes - microbiology
Ixodes ricinus
Ixodidae
Lyme borreliosis disease
Lyme disease
Lyme Disease - epidemiology
Medical sciences
Models, Statistical
Outdoor activities
Seasons
Summer
Temperature
temperature dependence
tick activity
Tropical bacterial diseases
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Summary:The change of ambient temperature plays a key role in determining the run of the annual Lyme season. Our aim was to explain the apparent contradiction between the annual unimodal Lyme borreliosis incidence and the bimodal Ixodes ricinus tick activity run - both observed in Hungary - by distinguishing the temperature-dependent seasonal human and tick activity, the temperature-independent factors, and the multiplicative effect of human outdoor activity in summer holiday, using data from Hungary in the period of 1998-2012. This separation was verified by modeling the Lyme incidence based on the separated factors, and comparing the run of the observed and modeled incidence. We demonstrated the bimodality of tick season by using the originally unimodal Lyme incidence data. To model the outdoor human activity, the amount of camping guest nights was used, which showed an irregular run from mid-June to September. The human outdoor activity showed a similar exponential correlation with ambient temperature to that what the relative incidence did. It was proved that summer holiday has great influence on Lyme incidence.
ISSN:0960-3123
1369-1619
DOI:10.1080/09603123.2013.807329