Using a multi-phase model to predict flushing of sprayed seal pavements

Flushing is a pavement defect that has a negative effect on the structural integrity and performance of a pavement surface. The aim of this study was to develop a model to predict the occurrence and progression of flushing on sprayed seal pavements. Data analysis and model development were performed...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The international journal of pavement engineering 2014-03, Vol.15 (3), p.267-278
Main Authors: Kodippily, Sachi, Henning, Theunis F.P., Ingham, Jason M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Asphalt pavements
chipseal
Data analysis
Data processing
Flushing
Format
linear regression
logistic regression
Logistics
Mathematical models
Pavements
Predictions
Probability
Progressions
Seals
sprayed seal
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Summary:Flushing is a pavement defect that has a negative effect on the structural integrity and performance of a pavement surface. The aim of this study was to develop a model to predict the occurrence and progression of flushing on sprayed seal pavements. Data analysis and model development were performed using data sourced from New Zealand's Long-Term Pavement Performance programme. The developed model consists of two phases to model (1) the probability of flushing initiating on a pavement and (2) the progression of flushing. The probability of flushing initiation was modelled using a logistic model format, and the progression of flushing was modelled using a linear model format. Testing of the developed model revealed that the logistic model predicted the probability of flushing initiation at 76% accuracy, whereas the linear model had statistically robust predictions of flushing. The developed model is recommended for use in sprayed seal pavement management processes.
ISSN:1029-8436
1477-268X
DOI:10.1080/10298436.2013.828839