MJO potential predictability and predictive skill in IAP AGCM 4.1

MJO模拟及预报是现阶段大气科学研究的前沿问题。本文利用中科院大气物理所大气环流模式（IAP AGCM4.1）的集合回报结果,分析了MJO潜在可预报性及预报技巧。研究表明IAP AGCM4.1对MJO有着较好的潜在可预报性,且集合预报的潜在可预报性要明显优于单样本预报;就MJO的预报技巧而言,集合预报同样优于单样本预报;模式对MJO的预报技巧还显著依赖于预报初始时刻的MJO状态,初始MJO信号越强,模式对MJO的预报技巧也越高,且更接近可预报性的上限。...

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Published in:Atmospheric and oceanic science letters = Daqi-he-haiyang-kexue-kuaibao 2016-09, Vol.9 (5), p.388-393
Main Authors: WANG, Kun, LIN, Zhao-Hui, LING, Jian, YU, Yue, WU, Cheng-Lai
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Amplitude
Climate prediction
IAP AGCM 4.1
IAP大气环流模式
Methods
MJO
MJO潜在可预报性
MJO预报技巧
predictability
prediction skill
Rain
热带大气季节内振荡
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container_title Atmospheric and oceanic science letters = Daqi-he-haiyang-kexue-kuaibao
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creator WANG, Kun
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YU, Yue
WU, Cheng-Lai
description MJO模拟及预报是现阶段大气科学研究的前沿问题。本文利用中科院大气物理所大气环流模式（IAP AGCM4.1）的集合回报结果,分析了MJO潜在可预报性及预报技巧。研究表明IAP AGCM4.1对MJO有着较好的潜在可预报性,且集合预报的潜在可预报性要明显优于单样本预报;就MJO的预报技巧而言,集合预报同样优于单样本预报;模式对MJO的预报技巧还显著依赖于预报初始时刻的MJO状态,初始MJO信号越强,模式对MJO的预报技巧也越高,且更接近可预报性的上限。
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subjects Amplitude
Climate prediction
IAP AGCM 4.1
IAP大气环流模式
Methods
MJO
MJO潜在可预报性
MJO预报技巧
predictability
prediction skill
Rain
热带大气季节内振荡
title MJO potential predictability and predictive skill in IAP AGCM 4.1
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