A Bayesian network approach for predicting seismic liquefaction based on interpretive structural modeling

• Published in: Georisk 2015-07, Vol.9 (3), p.200-217
• Main Authors: Hu, Ji-Lei, Tang, Xiao-Wei, Qiu, Jiang-Nan
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Assessments; Bayesian analysis; Bayesian network; Construction; domain knowledge; Earthquake construction; interpretive structural modeling; Liquefaction; Mathematical models; Networks; seismic liquefaction potential; structure learning
• ISSN: 1749-9518; 1749-9526
• DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2015.1076570

The Bayesian network (BN) is a type of graphical network based on probabilistic inference that has been gradually applied to assessment of seismic liquefaction potential. However, how to construct a robust BN remains underexplored in this field. This paper aims to present an efficient hybrid approach combining domain knowledge and data to construct a BN that facilitates the integration of multiple factors and the quantification of uncertainties within a network model to assess seismic liquefaction. Initially, only using given domain knowledge, a naive network model can be constructed using interpretive structural modeling. Thereafter, some effective information about the naive model is provided to construct a robust model using structural learning of BN from historic data. Finally, the returning predictive results and the predictive results are compared to other methods including non-probabilistic and probabilistic models for seismic liquefaction using the metrics of the overall accuracy, the area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic, prediction, recall and F 1 score. The methodology proposed in this paper achieved better performance, and we discussed the power and value of the proposed approach at the end of this paper, which suggest that BN is a good alternative tool for seismic liquefaction prediction.