The effect of artificial intelligence on China's labor market

Automation and artificial intelligence technology have played a pivotal role in today's economic and social development. They represent a labor-substituted technological progress, featuring more and more jobs to be replaced by AI. Based on the adoption rate calculated in our paper and theoretic...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:China economic journal 2020-01, Vol.13 (1), p.24-41
Main Authors: Zhou, Guangsu, Chu, Gaosi, Li, Lixing, Meng, Lingsheng
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Artificial Intelligence
Economic theory
Employment
Internet of Things
Labor force
Labor market
Occupations
Older people
Social development
Substituted Employment
Substitution Effect
Technology
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Summary:Automation and artificial intelligence technology have played a pivotal role in today's economic and social development. They represent a labor-substituted technological progress, featuring more and more jobs to be replaced by AI. Based on the adoption rate calculated in our paper and theoretical substitution probability estimated by existing studies, our research estimates the actual substitution probability by AI for various occupations in China. By using this actual substitution probability on occupation level, we also explore the substitution effects on labor force with different characteristics and find that AI has larger substitution impacts on labors of female, old age, low education and low income. We also predict the number of employed people that would be replaced by AI in each industry, and the results show that China will have 278 million labors (201 ~ 333 million under different adoption rates) replaced by AI by 2049, representing 35.8% of the current employment in China. Abbreviation: Artificial intelligence (AI), internet of things (IoT), Council of Economic Advisers (CEA)
ISSN:1753-8963
1753-8971
DOI:10.1080/17538963.2019.1681201