Betting on the best case: higher end warming is underrepresented in research

We compare the probability of different warming rates to their mentions in IPCC reports through text mining. We find that there is a substantial mismatch between likely warming rates and research coverage. 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios are substantially overrepresented. More likely higher end warming sc...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental research letters 2021-08, Vol.16 (8), p.84036
Main Authors: Jehn, Florian U, Schneider, Marie, Wang, Jason R, Kemp, Luke, Breuer, Lutz
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
climate change
existential risk
higher end warming
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC
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Summary:We compare the probability of different warming rates to their mentions in IPCC reports through text mining. We find that there is a substantial mismatch between likely warming rates and research coverage. 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios are substantially overrepresented. More likely higher end warming scenarios of 3 °C and above, despite potential catastrophic impacts, are severely neglected.
ISSN:1748-9326
1748-9326
DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ac13ef