Fluctuation characteristics and influence factors of rice price in Guangdong

• Published in: IOP conference series. Earth and environmental science 2018-08, Vol.185 (1), p.12037
• Main Authors: Liang, J F, Wan, Z, Fang, W, Ma, L
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Decomposition; Grain; Influence; Periodic variations; Production costs; Rice; Seasonal variations; Supply & demand; Time series
• ISSN: 1755-1307; 1755-1315; 1755-1315
• DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/185/1/012037

Guangdong Province is a large province of rations consumption and the abnormal fluctuations in food prices will affect its steady development. In this paper, the largest grain product in Guangdong Province - Rice is selected as the research object, and the price fluctuation characteristics is analyzed by the time series decomposition method. We try to answer the following two questions: First, what are the characteristics of price fluctuation of rice in Guangdong Province? Second, what causes the rapid rise in rice prices in the short term? The paper identifies and analyzes the fluctuation rules and characteristics of rice price in Guangdong and summarizes main influence factors for short-term drastic fluctuation in rice price by time series decomposition method based on the monthly price data in 1998-2015. The results show that the rice price in Guangdong has the following characteristics for a long time: overall rising, short-term drastic fluctuation, obvious periodic fluctuation and weakened seasonal fluctuation; random shocks drive and restrain the rice price, where external factors have serious influences on price fluctuation in some years, while the influence of random components on rice price has been obviously weakened since the second half of 2012; main factors influencing the fluctuation in rice price include market supply and demand, production cost and grain policies. In view of this, it is suggested in the paper that future price fluctuation should be predicted by utilizing the long-term trend and the periodic characteristics of the rice price, attention be paid to such factors causing abnormal fluctuation in rice price, market monitoring be strengthened and effective measures be taken to mitigate short-term drastic fluctuation in rice price.