Modelling and forecasting stock–recruitment: current and future perspectives

This paper presents a brief review of the present state of knowledge in stock–recruitment forecasting, including process and current methodological challenges to predicting stock–recruitment. The discussion covers the apparent inability of models to accurately forecast recruitment even when environm...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:ICES journal of marine science 2014-10, Vol.71 (8), p.2307-2322
Main Authors: Subbey, Sam, Devine, Jennifer A., Schaarschmidt, Ute, Nash, Richard D.M.
Format: Article
Language:English
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Summary:This paper presents a brief review of the present state of knowledge in stock–recruitment forecasting, including process and current methodological challenges to predicting stock–recruitment. The discussion covers the apparent inability of models to accurately forecast recruitment even when environmental covariates are included as explanatory variables. The review shows that despite the incremental success in the past hundred years, substantial challenges remain if the process of modelling and forecasting stock–recruitment is to become relevant to fisheries science and management in the next 100 years.
ISSN:1054-3139
1095-9289
DOI:10.1093/icesjms/fsu148