P-160IS UK STILL IN THE EUROZONE? VALIDATING AN OFF-THE-SHELF RISK SCORING SYSTEM: A PROSPECTIVE AUDIT

• Published in: Interactive cardiovascular and thoracic surgery 2013-07, Vol.17 (suppl_1), p.S42-S42
• Main Authors: Khawaja, Saud Ahmed, Hristova, R., Thorpe, A., Kefaloyannis, E., Milton, R., Papagiannopoulos, K., Chaudhuri, N.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• ISSN: 1569-9293; 1569-9285
• DOI: 10.1093/icvts/ivt288.160

Objectives Thoracoscore is a risk stratification system that predicts in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing thoracic surgery. The test population in the creation of the scoring system were from continental Europe. We investigate the use of Thoracoscore in British patients who underwent lung resection in a prospective audit. Methods We collected data from 125 consecutive patients in our unit over a period of 6 months. We calculated their predicted mortality preoperatively using Thoracoscore and compared it to our actual in-hospital mortality (IHM). Results We found that the average predicted mortality for all 125 patients was 1.77% compared to our actual IHM of 1.6% (2 patients). Conclusions In our group of patients undergoing lung resections, we found that in the population as a whole the predicted mortality and actual mortality were similar. However, we found that Thoracoscore underpredicts in-hospital mortality in some subgroups. There are a variety of reasons, such as using risk prediction systems with small subsets of patients, changing risks for surgical procedures and finally the dangers of using summary data as opposed to real time Bayesian systems. Overall we found that Thoracoscore is able to predict mortality accurately within our patient population in UK and can be safely and accurately used to quote predicted mortality to British patients undergoing thoracic surgery. Disclosure All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.