Forecasting seeing for the Maunakea Observatories

• Published in: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 2020-08, Vol.496 (4), p.4734-4748
• Main Authors: Lyman, Ryan, Cherubini, Tiziana, Businger, Steven
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• ISSN: 0035-8711; 1365-2966
• DOI: 10.1093/mnras/staa1787

ABSTRACT Optical turbulence greatly impacts the range and quality of astronomical observations. Advanced knowledge of the expected atmospheric optical turbulence provides important guidance that helps astronomers decide which instrument to schedule and enables them to optimize the adaptive optics technology that improves image resolution. Along with forecasts of weather conditions, prediction of the optical observing quality on the Maunakea summit has been a goal for the Maunakea Weather Center (MKWC) since its inception more than 20 yr ago. Forecasting optical turbulence, and its derivative, ‘seeing’, has proven to be quite challenging because optical turbulence is too small and complex to directly capture with a regional weather model. Fortunately, the permanent installation of a Differential Image Motion Monitor (DIMM) and Multi-Aperture Scintillation Sensor (MASS) at the summit of Maunakea has made seeing observations available during the last decade, providing valuable feedback to the MKWC. This paper summarizes the experience at MKWC in anticipating optical turbulence for the summit of Maunakea accrued through years of daily operational forecasting, and continuous comparison between MKWC official forecasts, model guidance, and observational measures of seeing. Access to a decade seeing observations has allowed quantification the factors that impact seeing, including wind shear, atmospheric stability patterns, and optical turbulence, and to document the seasonal and intra-seasonal variations in seeing. Consequently, the combination of experience gained, and custom model guidance has led to more accurate seeing forecasts (rms errors averaging