The economic impact of Brexit-induced reductions in migration

We analyse the determinants of migration flows to the UK, and the impact of restrictions on free movement post-Brexit, in both the short and long term. We then provide plausible, empirically based estimates of the likely impacts on growth and wages using relationships from the existing empirical lit...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Oxford review of economic policy 2017-03, Vol.33 (suppl_1), p.S31-S44
Main Authors: Portes, Jonathan, Forte, Giuseppe
Format: Article
Language:English
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Summary:We analyse the determinants of migration flows to the UK, and the impact of restrictions on free movement post-Brexit, in both the short and long term. We then provide plausible, empirically based estimates of the likely impacts on growth and wages using relationships from the existing empirical literature. We find that Brexit-induced reductions in migration are likely to have a significant negative impact on UK GDP per capita (and GDP), with marginal positive impacts on wages in the low-skill service sector.
ISSN:0266-903X
1460-2121
DOI:10.1093/oxrep/grx008