Causal Interaction and External Validity: Obstacles to the Policy Relevance of Randomized Evaluations

The ability to generalize effects estimated from randomized experiments is critical for their relevance to policy. Framing that problem in terms of causal interaction reveals the extent to which the literature to date has failed to adequately address external validity. An analogy with matching estim...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:The World Bank economic review 2015-01, Vol.29 (suppl 1), p.S217-S225
Main Author: Muller, Seán M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
CASUALITY AND EXTERNAL VALIDITY
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:The ability to generalize effects estimated from randomized experiments is critical for their relevance to policy. Framing that problem in terms of causal interaction reveals the extent to which the literature to date has failed to adequately address external validity. An analogy with matching estimators illustrates the current inconsistency in approaches to estimating causal relationships and generalizing these estimates to other populations and contexts. Contrary to some claims, atheoretic replication is not a plausible solution. Better knowledge of, and more information on, interacting factors is required for credible, formal extrapolation. In the absence of that, modesty is recommended.
ISSN:0258-6770
1564-698X
DOI:10.1093/wber/lhv027