Modelling the climatic niche of turtles: a deep-time perspective

Ectotherms have close physiological ties with the thermal environment; consequently, the impact of future climate change on their biogeographic distributions is of major interest. Here, we use the modern and deep-time fossil record of testudines (turtles, tortoises, and terrapins) to provide the fir...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the Royal Society. B, Biological sciences Biological sciences, 2016-09, Vol.283 (1839), p.20161408
Main Authors: Waterson, Amy M., Schmidt, Daniela N., Valdes, Paul J., Holroyd, Patricia A., Nicholson, David B., Farnsworth, Alexander, Barrett, Paul M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animals
Biological Evolution
Climate Change
Ecological Niche Model
Ecosystem
Fossils
Late Cretaceous
Niche Stability
Testudine
Turtles
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Summary:Ectotherms have close physiological ties with the thermal environment; consequently, the impact of future climate change on their biogeographic distributions is of major interest. Here, we use the modern and deep-time fossil record of testudines (turtles, tortoises, and terrapins) to provide the first test of climate on the niche limits of both extant and extinct (Late Cretaceous, Maastrichtian) taxa. Ecological niche models are used to assess niche overlap in model projections for key testudine ecotypes and families. An ordination framework is applied to quantify metrics of niche change (stability, expansion, and unfilling) between the Maastrichtian and present day. Results indicate that niche stability over evolutionary timescales varies between testudine clades. Groups that originated in the Early Cretaceous show climatic niche stability, whereas those diversifying towards the end of the Cretaceous display larger niche expansion towards the modern. Temperature is the dominant driver of modern and past distributions, whereas precipitation is important for freshwater turtle ranges. Our findings demonstrate that testudines were able to occupy warmer climates than present day in the geological record. However, the projected rate and magnitude of future environmental change, in concert with other conservation threats, presents challenges for acclimation or adaptation.
ISSN:0962-8452
1471-2954
DOI:10.1098/rspb.2016.1408