Cryptic disease-induced mortality may cause host extinction in an apparently stable host–parasite system

The decline of wildlife populations due to emerging infectious disease often shows a common pattern: the parasite invades a naive host population, producing epidemic disease and a population decline, sometimes with extirpation. Some susceptible host populations can survive the epidemic phase and per...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the Royal Society. B, Biological sciences Biological sciences, 2017-09, Vol.284 (1863), p.20171176-20171176
Main Authors: Valenzuela-Sánchez, Andrés, Schmidt, Benedikt R., Uribe-Rivera, David E., Costas, Francisco, Cunningham, Andrew A., Soto-Azat, Claudio
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animals
Anura - parasitology
Batrachochytrium
Chytridiomycosis
Chytridiomycota - pathogenicity
Conservation practices
Cormack–jolly–seber Models
Darwin's Frogs
Ecology
Epidemic And Endemic Emerging Infectious Disease
Epidemics
Extinction, Biological
Host-Parasite Interactions
Infectious diseases
Mathematical models
Matrix Population Models
Models, Biological
Models, Statistical
Mortality
Multi-State Capture–recapture Models
Mycoses - veterinary
Parasites
Parasitic diseases
Population (statistical)
Population decline
Population Dynamics
Species extinction
Threatened species
Wildlife
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Summary:The decline of wildlife populations due to emerging infectious disease often shows a common pattern: the parasite invades a naive host population, producing epidemic disease and a population decline, sometimes with extirpation. Some susceptible host populations can survive the epidemic phase and persist with endemic parasitic infection. Understanding host–parasite dynamics leading to persistence of the system is imperative to adequately inform conservation practice. Here we combine field data, statistical and mathematical modelling to explore the dynamics of the apparently stable Rhinoderma darwinii–Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) system. Our results indicate that Bd-induced population extirpation may occur even in the absence of epidemics and where parasite prevalence is relatively low. These empirical findings are consistent with previous theoretical predictions showing that highly pathogenic parasites are able to regulate host populations even at extremely low prevalence, highlighting that disease threats should be investigated as a cause of population declines even in the absence of an overt increase in mortality.
ISSN:0962-8452
1471-2954
DOI:10.1098/rspb.2017.1176