Progress in and prospects for fluvial flood modelling

Recent floods in the UK have raised public and political awareness of flood risk. There is an increasing recognition that flood management and land-use planning are linked, and that decision-support modelling tools are required to address issues of climate and land-use change for integrated catchmen...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences physical, and engineering sciences, 2002-07, Vol.360 (1796), p.1409-1431
Main Author: Wheater, H. S.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Climate
Climate Change
Climate models
Computer Simulation
Decision Support Techniques
Disaster Planning - methods
Disaster Planning - trends
Disasters
Floods
Forecasting - methods
Fresh Water
Freshwater
Hydrological modeling
Land-Use Change
Modeling
Modelling
Models, Statistical
Parametric models
Rain
Rainfall
Risk Assessment - methods
Risk Assessment - trends
Simulations
Spatial models
Stochastic Processes
United Kingdom
Water Movements
Watersheds
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Summary:Recent floods in the UK have raised public and political awareness of flood risk. There is an increasing recognition that flood management and land-use planning are linked, and that decision-support modelling tools are required to address issues of climate and land-use change for integrated catchment management. In this paper, the scientific context for fluvial flood modelling is discussed, current modelling capability is considered and research challenges are identified. Priorities include (i) appropriate representation of spatial precipitation, including scenarios of climate change; (ii) development of a national capability for continuous hydrological simulation of ungauged catchments; (iii) improved scientific understanding of impacts of agricultural land-use and land-management change, and the development of new modelling approaches to represent those impacts; (iv) improved representation of urban flooding, at both local and catchment scale; (v) appropriate parametrizations for hydraulic simulation of in-channel and flood-plain flows, assimilating available ground observations and remotely sensed data; and (vi) a flexible decision-support modelling framework, incorporating developments in computing, data availability, data assimilation and uncertainty analysis.
ISSN:1364-503X
1471-2962
DOI:10.1098/rsta.2002.1007