Generation/transmission power system reliability evaluation by Monte-Carlo simulation assuming a fuzzy load description

• Published in: IEEE transactions on power systems 1996-05, Vol.11 (2), p.690-695
• Main Authors: Tome Saraiva, J., Miranda, V., Pinto, L.M.V.G.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Applied sciences; Electrical engineering. Electrical power engineering; Electrical power engineering; Exact sciences and technology; Fuzzy systems; Load flow; Operation. Load control. Reliability; Power generation; Power networks and lines; Power supplies; Power system modeling; Power system planning; Power system reliability; Uncertainty
• ISSN: 0885-8950; 1558-0679
• DOI: 10.1109/59.496140

This paper presents a Monte-Carlo algorithm considering loads defined by fuzzy numbers. In this methodology states are sampled according to the probabilistic models governing the life cycle of system components while fuzzy concepts are used to model uncertainty related to future load behavior. This model can be used to evaluate generation/transmission power system reliability for long term planning studies as one uses the more adequate uncertainty models for each type of data. For each sampled state a fuzzy optimal power flow is run so that one builds its power nor supplied membership function. The paper proposes new indices reflecting the integration of probabilistic models and fuzzy concepts and discusses the application of variance reduction techniques if loads are defined by fuzzy numbers. A case-study based on the IEEE 30 bus system illustrates this methodology.