Probabilistic Assessment of Spinning Reserve via Cross-Entropy Method Considering Renewable Sources and Transmission Restrictions

This work presents a new method to evaluate generation reserve margins in systems with renewable sources. In assessing the adequacy of generation reserve amounts, besides failures in generating units, their capacity intermittencies, unavailability, and capacity limits of the transmission system are...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:IEEE transactions on power systems 2018-07, Vol.33 (4), p.4574-4582
Main Authors: Leite da Silva, Armando M., Costa Castro, Jose F. da, Billinton, Roy
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Composite reliability
cross-entropy method
Load modeling
Power system reliability
Probabilistic logic
Reliability
renewables
risk indices
Spinning
spinning reserve
Stochastic processes
transmission constraints
Wind power generation
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Summary:This work presents a new method to evaluate generation reserve margins in systems with renewable sources. In assessing the adequacy of generation reserve amounts, besides failures in generating units, their capacity intermittencies, unavailability, and capacity limits of the transmission system are duly considered. Risk indices are evaluated using quasi-sequential Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The cross-entropy method is used to treat rare events and also to identify critical equipment for operation in each scenario. The proposed method is applied to the original IEEE RTS system and to a modified configuration with insertion of wind power plants. A subsystem of the Brazilian interconnected network is also used to illustrate the practicality of the proposed method.
ISSN:0885-8950
1558-0679
DOI:10.1109/TPWRS.2017.2773561