2-D Wind Speed Statistical Model for Reliability Assessment of Microgrid

Appropriate wind speed modeling for generating synthetic wind speed data is crucial in microgrid reliability evaluation studies. This paper proposes a 2-D wind speed statistical model based on historical wind speed data. The first dimension of the proposed wind model focuses on the probability distr...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:IEEE transactions on sustainable energy 2016-07, Vol.7 (3), p.1159-1169
Main Authors: Wang, Shouxiang, Zhang, Xingyou, Ge, Leijiao, Wu, Lei
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Autoregressive processes
Distributed generation
Mathematical models
Microgrid
Microgrids
Probability
Probability distribution
Reliability
Reliability analysis
reliability assessment
Statistical analysis
statistics analysis
Volatility
Wind energy
Wind speed
wind speed model
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Summary:Appropriate wind speed modeling for generating synthetic wind speed data is crucial in microgrid reliability evaluation studies. This paper proposes a 2-D wind speed statistical model based on historical wind speed data. The first dimension of the proposed wind model focuses on the probability distribution on the time duration of different wind speed scales, while the second dimension focuses on the probability distribution of wind speed in each wind speed scale. Unlike traditional wind speed models, the proposed model can simultaneously deal with the probabilistic characteristics of wind speed and wind time duration. This paper also presents a 2-D wind model-based data sampling method, and incorporates it into the microgrid reliability assessment algorithm. Using historical wind speed data in Tianjin, China, it shows that the proposed 2-D wind speed statistical model helps to fully simulate the volatility of wind energy. Furthermore, the proposed wind speed model is applied on the microgrid reliability evaluation study, which shows that the proposed model can be effectively utilized by planners to conduct reliability evaluation for microgrid.
ISSN:1949-3029
1949-3037
DOI:10.1109/TSTE.2015.2512608