Shifts in the ecological niche of L utzomyia peruensis under climate change scenarios in P eru

• Published in: Medical and veterinary entomology 2017-06, Vol.31 (2), p.123-131
• Main Authors: MOO‐LLANES, D. A., ARQUE‐CHUNGA, W., CARMONA‐CASTRO, O., YAÑEZ‐ARENAS, C., YAÑEZ‐TRUJILLANO, H. H., CHEVERRÍA‐PACHECO, L., BAAK‐BAAK, C. M., CÁCERES, A. G.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• ISSN: 0269-283X; 1365-2915
• DOI: 10.1111/mve.12219

The P eruvian A ndes presents a climate suitable for many species of sandfly that are known vectors of leishmaniasis or bartonellosis, including L utzomyia peruensis ( D iptera: P sychodidae), among others. In the present study, occurrences data for L u. peruensis were compiled from several items in the scientific literature from P eru published between 1927 and 2015. Based on these data, ecological niche models were constructed to predict spatial distributions using three algorithms [Support vector machine (SVM), the Genetic Algorithm for Rule‐set Prediction (GARP) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)]. In addition, the environmental requirements of L u. peruensis and three niche characteristics were modelled in the context of future climate change scenarios: (a) potential changes in niche breadth; (b) shifts in the direction and magnitude of niche centroids, and (c) shifts in elevation range. The model identified areas that included environments suitable for L u. peruensis in most regions of P eru (45.77%) and an average altitude of 3289 m a.s.l. Under climate change scenarios, a decrease in the distribution areas of L u. peruensis was observed for all representative concentration pathways. However, the centroid of the species' ecological niche showed a northwest direction in all climate change scenarios. The information generated in this study may help health authorities responsible for the supervision of strategies to control leishmaniasis to coordinate, plan and implement appropriate strategies for each area of risk, taking into account the geographic distribution and potential dispersal of L u. peruensis .