Bayesian Estimation of the Fatigue Failure Probability

An a prior estimate of the probability of fatigue failure of a structural component of a technical system is obtained using statistical Monte Carlo simulation with allowance for the stochastic character of initial imperfection and Paris equation parameters. The a prior estimate is updated using Baye...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Russian metallurgy Metally 2022-04, Vol.2022 (4), p.293-299
Main Authors: Makhutov, N. A., Reznikov, D. O.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Chemistry and Materials Science
Deformation and Fracture Mechanics
Materials Science
Metallic Materials
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Summary:An a prior estimate of the probability of fatigue failure of a structural component of a technical system is obtained using statistical Monte Carlo simulation with allowance for the stochastic character of initial imperfection and Paris equation parameters. The a prior estimate is updated using Bayesian inference based on an analysis of new data on the defect sizes obtained by nondestructive testing during the operation of the component under study. The influence of the results of non-destructive testing on the posterior assessment of the fatigue failure probability is estimated.
ISSN:0036-0295
1555-6255
DOI:10.1134/S0036029522040176