ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND THE REAL ECONOMY OF SINGAPORE

This paper investigates (for the first time) the impact of the economic policy uncertainties of Singapore and its major trading partners on Singapore’s industrial production and exports. The study uses monthly data from January 2003 to August 2019, correlation analysis, spillover index analysis and...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Singapore economic review 2022-06, Vol.67 (4), p.1307-1331
Main Author: ISTIAK, KHANDOKAR
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Correlation analysis
Economic policy
Economic theory
Entrepreneurship
Exports
Indexes
Industrial production
Labor force
Policy making
Spillover effect
Trading
Uncertainty
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Summary:This paper investigates (for the first time) the impact of the economic policy uncertainties of Singapore and its major trading partners on Singapore’s industrial production and exports. The study uses monthly data from January 2003 to August 2019, correlation analysis, spillover index analysis and a structural vector autoregression model to perform the investigation. Using the newly invented Singaporean economic policy uncertainty index, the research finds that it is a good predictor of industrial production. It is found that, in general, uncertainty depresses Singapore’s industrial production and exports. The paper suggests that policymakers promote new entrepreneurship and build a skilled labor force to minimize the impact of uncertainty on the economy of Singapore.
ISSN:0217-5908
1793-6837
DOI:10.1142/S0217590820460042