Decision Analysis Framework for Risk Management of Crude Oil Pipeline System

A model is constructed for risk management of crude pipeline subject to rupture on the basis of a methodology that incorporates structured expert judgment and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The risk model calculates frequency of failure and their probable consequences for different segments of cr...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Advances in decision sciences 2011, Vol.2011 (2011), p.1-17
Main Authors: Dawotola, Alex W., van Gelder, P. H. A. J. M., Vrijling, J. K.
Format: Article
Language:English
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:A model is constructed for risk management of crude pipeline subject to rupture on the basis of a methodology that incorporates structured expert judgment and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The risk model calculates frequency of failure and their probable consequences for different segments of crude pipeline, considering various failure mechanisms. Specifically, structured expert judgment is used to provide frequency of failure assessments for identified failure mechanisms of the pipeline. In addition, AHP approach is utilized to obtain relative failure likelihood for attributes of failure mechanisms with very low probability of occurrence. Finally, the expected cost of failure for a given pipeline segment is estimated by combining its frequency of failure and the consequences of failure, estimated in terms of historical costs of failure from the pipeline operator’s database. A real-world case study of a crude pipeline is used to demonstrate the application of the proposed methodology.
ISSN:2090-3359
2090-3367
DOI:10.1155/2011/456824