Loading…

Role of Exposure in Analysis of Road Accidents: A Belgian Case Study

Exposure is a key variable in traffic safety research. In the literature, it is noted as the first and primary determinant of traffic safety. In many cases, however, no valid exposure measure is available. In Belgium, monthly traffic counts for 12 years are available. This offers the opportunity to...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Transportation research record 2005-01, Vol.1908 (1), p.96-103
Main Authors: Van den Bossche, Filip, Wets, Geert, Brijs, Tom
Format: Article
Language:English
Citations: Items that this one cites
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Exposure is a key variable in traffic safety research. In the literature, it is noted as the first and primary determinant of traffic safety. In many cases, however, no valid exposure measure is available. In Belgium, monthly traffic counts for 12 years are available. This offers the opportunity to investigate the added value of exposure in models, next to legal, economic, and climatologic variables. Multiple regression with autoregressive moving average (ARMA) errors is used to quantify the impact of these factors on aggregated traffic safety. For each dependent variable, a model with and without exposure is constructed. The models show that exposure is significantly related to the number of accidents with persons killed and seriously injured and to the corresponding victims, but not to the lightly injured outcomes. Moreover, the addition or deletion of exposure does not influence the effects of the remaining variables in the model. The effects of exposure clearly depend on the type of measure used and on the time horizon considered. The framework of a regression model with ARMA errors allows for missing variables being accounted for by the error term. Even without a variable such as exposure, valid models can be constructed.
ISSN:0361-1981
2169-4052
DOI:10.1177/0361198105190800112