The Short- to Medium-Term Predictive Accuracy of Static and Dynamic Risk Assessment Measures in a Secure Forensic Hospital

Although violence risk assessment knowledge and practice has advanced over the past few decades, it remains practically difficult to decide which measures clinicians should use to assess and make decisions about the violence potential of individuals on an ongoing basis, particularly in the short to...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Assessment (Odessa, Fla.) Fla.), 2013-04, Vol.20 (2), p.230-241
Main Authors: Chu, Chi Meng, Thomas, Stuart D. M., Ogloff, James R. P., Daffern, Michael
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accuracy
Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Aggression
Aggression - psychology
Australia
Cohort Analysis
Commitment of Mentally Ill
Comparative Analysis
Dangerous Behavior
Female
Follow-Up Studies
Foreign Countries
Hospitals, Psychiatric
Humans
Insanity Defense
Male
Measures (Individuals)
Mental Disorders
Middle Aged
Patients
Predictive Validity
Prisoners - psychology
Psychiatric Hospitals
Psychometrics - statistics & numerical data
Reproducibility of Results
Risk Assessment
Risk Assessment - statistics & numerical data
Risk Factors
Statistical Analysis
Victoria
Violence
Violence - prevention & control
Violence - psychology
Young Adult
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Summary:Although violence risk assessment knowledge and practice has advanced over the past few decades, it remains practically difficult to decide which measures clinicians should use to assess and make decisions about the violence potential of individuals on an ongoing basis, particularly in the short to medium term. Within this context, this study sought to compare the predictive accuracy of dynamic risk assessment measures for violence with static risk assessment measures over the short term (up to 1 month) and medium term (up to 6 months) in a forensic psychiatric inpatient setting. Results showed that dynamic measures were generally more accurate than static measures for short- to medium-term predictions of inpatient aggression. These findings highlight the necessity of using risk assessment measures that are sensitive to important clinical risk state variables to improve the short- to medium-term prediction of aggression within the forensic inpatient setting. Such knowledge can assist with the development of more accurate and efficient risk assessment procedures, including the selection of appropriate risk assessment instruments to manage and prevent the violence of offenders with mental illnesses during inpatient treatment.
ISSN:1073-1911
1552-3489
DOI:10.1177/1073191111418298