Derivation of a Risk Prediction Model for Venous Thromboembolism in Adult Patients with Acute Myeloid Leukemia

• Published in: Blood 2023-11, Vol.142 (Supplement 1), p.1489-1489
• Main Authors: McQuinn, Danielle, Banaszak, Lauren G, Cabral, Paloma L, Reinig, Erica, Hyun, Meredith, Mattison, Ryan J
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• ISSN: 0006-4971; 1528-0020
• DOI: 10.1182/blood-2023-190427

Background: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a well-established complication of malignancy associated with high morbidity. Many validated scoring systems exist to predict risk of VTE in patients with solid tumors. However, there are no models that can prospectively identify patients at high risk for the development of VTE in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The purpose of this study was to determine risk factors for the development of VTE in a large cohort of AML patients and to develop a risk stratification model to predict VTE risk in this patient population. Methods: Adult patients presenting to the University of Wisconsin-Madison with newly-diagnosed AML from 1/1/2010 through 12/31/2021 were included in this retrospective cohort study. The primary end point was VTE within one year of diagnosis. Univariate logistic regression models were used to assess the association of each variable with development of VTE. Multivariate analysis was then completed using 16 candidate variables including demographics (sex, race, age at diagnosis), comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, coronary artery disease, asthma/COPD), body mass index (BMI), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS), history of solid organ or hematologic malignancy, smoking status, indwelling venous catheter, history of VTE, and baseline laboratory values (white blood cell count, hemoglobin, platelet count). Non-normally distributed continuous candidates were log10-transformed, then stepwise selection was used on a training set to choose predictive variables to construct a risk score to predict VTE within one year of AML diagnosis. Results: 326 patients with AML were included in the analysis. The median age at diagnosis was 60 years (range 19-92 years), 55% of the study population was male, and 94% were Caucasian race. 59 patients (18%) experienced VTE within one year of diagnosis. Age at diagnosis (OR 0.98, 95% CI, 0.963-0.998, p=0.033), BMI (OR 1.058, 95% CI, 1.02-1.10, p=0.005), hypertension (OR 0.522, 95% CI, 0.29-0.96, p=0.035) and platelets (OR 3.16, 95% CI, 1.44-6.94, p = 0.004) were individually associated with VTE. In a subgroup analysis of 278 patients with next generation sequencing data available, mutations in DNA methylation genes (DNMT3A, DNMT1, IDH1, IDH2, TET2) were associated with an increased risk of VTE (OR 1.911, 95% CI 1.017-3.591, p=0.0442, Table 1). A multivariate logistic regression model identified six independent predictors of VTE including platelet count